Wojciech Lewicki, Aleksandra A. Olejarz-Wahba
Modeling of Development Trends in Sales of New Passenger Vehicles in Poland Using the ARIMA-X-12 and TRAMO-SEATS Methods
Číslo: 3/2020
Periodikum: Statistika
Klíčová slova: Time series, seasonality, vehicle sales, trend, TRAMO-SEATS, ARIMA-X-12, outliers
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Anotace:
The purpose of this article is to present development trends in sales of new passenger vehicles in Poland. The authors of the article suggest that this way of presenting sales results is incorrect. When decomposing the time series of the number of passenger car sales per seasonal component, the trend and accidental fluctuations and irregular fluctuations, it was proved that the analyzed phenomenon is more complex. In addition, it has been proved that the sale of new cars is a component of sales of passenger cars produced this year and sales of vehicles produced in the previous year, in which sales are characterized by different seasonality.
The monthly data from January 2013 to November 2018 were used to decompose the time series of sales of new passenger vehicles in Poland. The data from the Central Register of Vehicles and Drivers was made available. The ARIMA-X-12 and TRAMO-SEATS methods were used to decompose the analyzed time series.
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The monthly data from January 2013 to November 2018 were used to decompose the time series of sales of new passenger vehicles in Poland. The data from the Central Register of Vehicles and Drivers was made available. The ARIMA-X-12 and TRAMO-SEATS methods were used to decompose the analyzed time series.