Macroeconomic Cycle Made Visible in Real Terms as Protection against Asset Illusion

Uwe Bergold

Macroeconomic Cycle Made Visible in Real Terms as Protection against Asset Illusion

Číslo: 1/2019
Periodikum: Acta Oeconomica Pragensia
DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.614

Klíčová slova: global debt crisis, stock market bubble, asset illusion, monetary units of measure, boom and bust cycle, Shiller P/E Ratio, Gold, paper currencies, inflation

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Anotace: The current historically unparalleled global debt crisis and the resulting momentous valuation

anomalies notably affecting the stock and bond markets (the historically low-interest rate level)
are making it increasingly difficult for both institutional and private asset managers to generate
an actual yield above the inflation rate. The problems with building wealth, and hence with pensions
plans, first began at the turn of the millennium when the burst of the largest stock market bubble
of all time firmly put the price distortions of assets into the public eye. This milestone also marked
the beginning of a secular bust phase, which has been on a real gradual downtrend and despite
nominal price increases is still ongoing today. However, this problem only becomes visible upon
real evaluation, in ounces of gold. Contrary to the ubiquitous nominal view in uncovered paper
currencies, only this real view, valued in ounces of gold, protects both private and institutional
investors from an illusion of wealth.