Convergence of Inflation and Unemployment Rates

Stanislava Hronová, Luboš Marek, Richard Hindls

Convergence of Inflation and Unemployment Rates

Číslo: 3/2021
Periodikum: Statistika

Klíčová slova: Dynamic linear model, unemployment rate, inflation rate, signal gap, GDP

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Anotace: In economic theory the Phillips curve presents the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation

rate. The inflation and unemployment rate bring important information about the stages of the economic
cycle. This article attempts to find an answer to the question of whether the development of the difference
between the unemployment and inflation rate, the so-called signal gap, may be an indicator of changes
in the economic cycle. Quarterly data on the Czech Republic, France, Great Britain and the Republic of Korea
were used to verify this hypothesis.