Driving Forces Behind Gas Price in Global Markets

Marek Vochozka, Andrea Novotná, Blanka Borovková

Driving Forces Behind Gas Price in Global Markets

Číslo: 1/2023
Periodikum: Acta Montanistica Slovaca
DOI: 10.46544/AMS.v28i1.12

Klíčová slova: Neural networks, correlation analysis, natural gas trends, government decisions, forecasting natural gas price

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Anotace: Gas is a fossil fuel belonging to non-renewable and essential energy

sources. Although its reserves are, contrary to oil, sufficient, we
expect the gas extraction to peak and gradually dwindle to nothing
soon. The figures on natural gas prices gave us a breeding ground for
research based on correlation analysis and time series regression
using multilayer perceptron networks. The outcomes proved no
measurable effect of government decisions on the global gas trends.
The study foresaw that natural gas value will be highly variable
through 2023 since gas rates go through regular cycles lasting several
years. First, the course sends the price soaring and then lets it fall to
its original value. Other contributory factors involve adopted
legislation, prices of related commodities, weather changes, the
Czech Crown exchange rate and the situation abroad. The war
between Russia and Ukraine is one example of inflation.