Jana Svobodová, Jan Koláček
Bayesian Geographical Profiling in Terrorism Revealing
Číslo: 3/2018
Periodikum: Statistika
Klíčová slova: Bayesian data analysis, geographic profiling, Global Terrorism Database, anchor point
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Anotace:
A significant part of research in terrorism studies focuses on the analysis of terrorist groups. An important issue
for this type of research is that a large number of attacks are not attributed to a specific group. As an appropriate
approach to solve the problem of attributing group responsibility we applied the geographic profiling theory.
We analyzed several terrorist organizations which typically commit attacks far away from their headquarters.
We proposed an innovative method based on Bayesian approach to find the organization’s base and to attribute
responsibility to perpetrators of terrorist attacks. We compared the results with classical techniques used in
criminology. The real data analysis shows rationale for the proposed approach. Analyzed data comes from
the Global Terrorism Database which is currently the most extensive database on terrorism ever collected.
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for this type of research is that a large number of attacks are not attributed to a specific group. As an appropriate
approach to solve the problem of attributing group responsibility we applied the geographic profiling theory.
We analyzed several terrorist organizations which typically commit attacks far away from their headquarters.
We proposed an innovative method based on Bayesian approach to find the organization’s base and to attribute
responsibility to perpetrators of terrorist attacks. We compared the results with classical techniques used in
criminology. The real data analysis shows rationale for the proposed approach. Analyzed data comes from
the Global Terrorism Database which is currently the most extensive database on terrorism ever collected.