Mortality Assumptions and Forecasting Methodology

Markéta Pechholdová

Mortality Assumptions and Forecasting Methodology

Číslo: 4/2019
Periodikum: Demografie

Klíčová slova: mortality, forecast, projection, ageing, life expectancy

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Anotace: Te present study describes the methodology of the new mortality forecast for Czechia. Te author presents

a brief review of existing forecasting approaches. Mortality trends in Czechia are then thoroughly assessed
in comparison to other European countries in order to extract a realistic pattern of the recent mortality decline.
Mortality dynamics are analysed with the Lee-Carter functional model and from the perspective of the rates
of mortality decline. Te new model is based on deterministic assumptions about the age-specifc patterns
of future mortality change. Tree scenarios are presented, refecting three possible future mortality settings.
Te projection results appear plausible both in terms of internal coherence (such as the gender gaps) and
compared to other existing mortality forecasts for Czechia.