Branislav Bleha, Boris Burcin, Tomáš Kučera, Branislav Šprocha, Boris Vaňo
The Population Prospects of Czechia and Slovakia until 2060
Číslo: 3/2018
Periodikum: Demografie
Klíčová slova: population, forecast, ageing, Czechia, Slovakia
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Anotace:
The article compares the aggregated estimates and results of two current national population forecasts to
the year 2060 that were produced in 2012 for Slovakia and in 2018 for Czechia. It comments in detail on
the basic irregularities in the age-sex structure that have formed over the past one hundred years and their
expected transformation in the next more than forty years and on the future development of the initial agesex
structure of the population. Special attention is devoted to the demographic ageing process, its probable
future development, and its specific features and internal differentiation. The results of both forecasts point
to considerable population inertia and age-structures with ‘a long memory’. Nevertheless, a near quartercentury
of low fertility, much lower in Slovakia than in Czechia, a less optimistic outlook for future fertility
and migration development, and the somewhat higher mortality intensity among the population in Slovakia
will very likely lead in the near future to depopulation and accelerated ageing of the population. The different
revolutionary paths of the two countries, naturally the demographic ones, contribute to the differences in the
pace and parameters of the culmination of the ageing process.
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the year 2060 that were produced in 2012 for Slovakia and in 2018 for Czechia. It comments in detail on
the basic irregularities in the age-sex structure that have formed over the past one hundred years and their
expected transformation in the next more than forty years and on the future development of the initial agesex
structure of the population. Special attention is devoted to the demographic ageing process, its probable
future development, and its specific features and internal differentiation. The results of both forecasts point
to considerable population inertia and age-structures with ‘a long memory’. Nevertheless, a near quartercentury
of low fertility, much lower in Slovakia than in Czechia, a less optimistic outlook for future fertility
and migration development, and the somewhat higher mortality intensity among the population in Slovakia
will very likely lead in the near future to depopulation and accelerated ageing of the population. The different
revolutionary paths of the two countries, naturally the demographic ones, contribute to the differences in the
pace and parameters of the culmination of the ageing process.