When Coups Occur

Anotace: It is generally accepted that attempts at coup d'état have decreased since the end of the Cold War. But this does not mean that coup attempts will not occur in the future. With the recent two military coups in Thailand and Myanmar, all the continental states in Southeast Asia have entered authoritarian rules. This article explores when coups possibly occurred in the cases of Thailand in 2014 and Myanmar in 2021 that experienced overthrowing the civilian governments and the rise of the military in power. The Early Warning Signals (EWS) recently endorsed to investigation of the likelihood of military coups and qualitative analysis of collected data on factors affecting such incidents were combined to better explain the situations. From this approach, this article found that Group Grievance and Security Apparatus indicators in the Fragile States Index are important factors leading to the occurrence of military coups in the two countries. Also, from the qualitative analysis, a political culture relying on on iconic political leaders in the two countries has been a negative influence that deludes democratization and challenges civilian rule.