Anotace:
The study aims to identify the issues of a quantitative assessment of the dependencies between indicators in the residential buildings of the construction sector in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The main objective of the research is to build econometric models of the impact of household income, investment in fixed assets, and the number of marriages in the country on residential buildings being commissioned. The paper also analyzes the economic characteristics of the construction sector in the country and does point out that this sector is a complex economic and cybernetic system, where all operations by nature are random. The time series of indicators of the construction sector, which were tested for stationarity based on the Dickey-Fuller test, serving as the core information part of the chosen study. As a result of regression analysis, based on these time series, dual regression equations have been constructed that model the correlation dependence of housing being put into the operation on regressors. In the light of economic research, an initial multiple regression model of the construction sector was set up and its static characteristics were tested. Checking the multicollinearity of this model using the VIF matrix construction method clearly showed that the X2 regressor (investment in fixed assets) violates the model specification, therefore, it should be excluded from the regressors. Repeated econometric modeling without the X2 regressor made it possible to construct a new version of the regression equation, which in the course of model experiments was improved to a model meeting all the Gauss-Markov conditions, which is not only adequate to the real conditions of the housing and labor markets but also is suitable for forecasting. In the selected article, based on this econometric model, the prognostication of demand in the housing market until 2020 is carried out.