Impact of Metal Commodity Prices in Predicting the Future Rate of Inflation rate in Poland

especially by the lack of non-renewable resources and the widespread
use of copper and aluminum in industry due to their properties. Metal
commodities are irreplaceable for the sector of developed countries,
and their scarcity during the COVID-19 period increases both their
price and, subsequently, the price of products made of these metals.
The paper deals with the trend of selected metal commodity prices on
the global market in the context of the macroeconomic indicator trend
of Poland's inflation rate. The paper aims to predict the inflation rate
trend in Poland and determine which of the selected metal
commodities is most closely linked to the economy. The research
data were obtained from Investing.com (2024) and Eurostat (2024)
and converted to time series. The price of metal commodities is given
in US dollars per tonne, while the inflation rate is expressed as a
percentage. The data on the development were processed using
artificial intelligence and recurrent neural networks, including the
Long Short Term Memory layer. In general, neural networks have
great potential to predict this type of time series. The experiment
involved prediction models built on artificial neural networks (NN)
with the LSTM layer and 19-day lag. The research confirmed that the
development of copper, zinc, and aluminum prices is closely
interlinked with the Polish economy. Therefore, the inflation rate in
Poland can be predicted with a high probability based on the
development of the examined metal commodities prices.