Evaluation and prediction of polyolefin price development

which have significantly influenced the whole world. This paper
deals with several topical issues, such as the impact of the
coronavirus pandemic on Brent's oil prices, on the price of plastics,
specifically polyolefins, i.e., polyethene and polypropylene, price
trends of petroleum products, in different crisis periods from 2006 to
the present and predicts the price trend of petroleum products
(polyolefins) using artificial intelligence. In the application part of
the research, the following research methods were used: time series
regression using neural networks and correlation and regression
analysis. Neural networks confirmed a significant effect of the
coronavirus pandemic on Brent's oil price. Correlation analysis
showed a long-term comparable trend in the development of Brent
oil and polyolefin prices, which is a confirmation of the significant
impact of COVID-19 on the price of polyethene and polypropylene.
The greatest benefit of this research for the application sphere is the
prediction of the price development of polyolefins. All generated
variants of the ANS neural network module predict a decreasing
trend of polypropylene and polyethene prices until the end of 2023.
The conducted research on the prices of polyolefins is a unique study
with practical benefits for companies producing the most in-demand
material in the world – plastic. Analysing and predicting the price
development of the commodities under study can be useful for
entities in their strategic assessment and subsequent investment
decisions. A limitation of the research is the ongoing war conflict in
Ukraine, as the oil market is sensitive to political conflicts and
becomes difficult to control and predict.